Some comments on the Nicaraguan elections
by Pastor Valle-Garay
October 31, 2006

What do you think about the Nicaraguan elections?

What elections? Nicaragua wallows in political quicksand and heads into a bottomless pit. Ortega's candidacy is a farcical operetta characterized by pacts with the devils. He has now completed the turn around from revolutionary fighter to consummate, wealthy oligarch. His supporters are a Who's Who of the worse reactionary element in the nation, precisely the element that the original FSLN and the Nicaraguan revolution fought to destroy. Ortega and the oligarchy are now one and the same. Undistinguishable from one another and twice as corrupt as before the revolution.

How do you explain that turn of events? 

It's quite simple indeed. Just look at some of the most prominent Ortega supporters. One of them is Arnoldo Alemán, the ex president and leader of the Constitutional Liberal Party (Somoza´s political party). Alemán was condemned to jail 20 years for robbing Nicaragua blind during his presidency but thanks to Ortega's generosity he now serves his sentence in his palatial home. Ortega's candidacy has been also blessed, literally, by Cardenal Miguel Obando y Bravo, an ignorant minion of the Vatican who became Nicaragua's first Cardenal as a Papal reward for his hatred of Ortega and the FSLN. Both of these vociferous, sworn enemies of the FSLN now support Ortega's presidential bid. How long will the honeymoon last is hard to tell. Perhaps for as long as Ortega remains President. It's the way of the jackals. Once they clean the carcass, they move on to another kill.

How can Ortega win the elections?

Unfortunately for Nicaragua, Ortega will probably win. It's practically guaranteed by the Ortega-Alemán pact which presently allows both of them to govern Nicaragua from below. They are de facto the powers behind the throne, as it were. This devils' pact allowed them to divide among themselves the absolute control of the Supreme Court, of the National Assembly (Parliament) and of the Supreme Electoral Council and, just as importantly, the pact established that in order to win the elections the successful candidate would only require a laughable, absurd 35% "majority" at the polls. Ortega is not going to get that majority from the majority of Nicaraguans or from the rank-and-file of the FSLN. He'll get it from the desperate poor, from the fanatically committed and from people who are afraid for their jobs and their future if they vote for anyone but Ortega.

Has Ortega divided the FSLN?

Single-handedly, Ortega has managed to destroy the FSLN. In his maniacal obsession to become Nicaragua's president after losing three consecutive elections, Ortega ignored all advise not to run again. Instead he expelled from the FSLN every reasonable, sensible, honest militant of the FSLN who dared announce himself as a viable alternative to Ortega This irrational move left the FSLN badly fractured and profoundly divided. It has attracted unwanted attention from the White House and only token support from the Latin American left while the Nicaraguan private sector detests him more than ever. Under these circumstances, it is difficult to tell who is Ortega going to govern. That´s what happens when a beautiful revolution is hijacked by individuals without principles.

Who could have ran instead of Ortega?

The most unfortunate thing, next to his chances of winning, is the sudden death of Herty Lewites, leader of the MRS (the Movement of Sandinista Renovation). Lewites could have won the elections and would have reunified the Sandinista family. Edmundo Jarquin, a world renowned economist succeeded Lewites. Jarquin is clean, nice, brilliant and ugly however he also joined the electoral campaign too late to be a successful contender. The other candidates are elitist trash. Like Ortega. Funny thing. The more I think about this guy, the more he resembles George W. Bush. Power mad. No brains. Just brawn.

What's the choice for Nicaraguans?

What do I think of the elections? It's like choosing between an earthquake, a hurricane and a tsunami. Nicaragua has been hit by all three with a vengeance. This one will be of catastrophic proportions and the people in the second poorest nation in the Hemisphere have no protection at all. This time Ortega won't be able to blame the Washington. He has no one to blame but himself and this presidential obsession which has become a political death wish. That will be the tragedy of Nicaragua on November 5, 2006.

Has the FSLN truly gone to hell?

In regards to your observation about the FSLN going to hell, you are absolutely right. As a result of Ortega's megalomania the best of the FSLN militancy left or was expelled by Ortega. Some were top members of the original FSLN leadership such as Comandante Guerrilleros Victor Tirado, Luis Carrion and Henry Ruiz; other commanders of the Sandinista revolution that have left include Dora Maria Tellez; Hugo Torres; Joaquin Cuadra and Monica Baltodano. Among other top Sandinista militants no longer with the FSLN, thanks to Ortega, are Nicaraguan writer Sergio Ramirez Mercado, former vice president of Nicaragua; Dr. Alejandro Martinez Cuenca, an economist and a former Minister of Foreign Trade; Nicaraguan poet and write Ernesto Cardenal, former Minister of Culture; father Fernando Cardenal, director of Nicaragua's successful Literacy Crusade and former Minister of Education; Carlos Tunnerman, former Minister of Education and Sandinista Ambassador to Washington; Dr. Alejandro Bendaña, former Director of International Relations at the Ministry of External Affairs and ex son-in-law of Ortega. (Bendaña was married to Zoilamerica, Ortega's step daughter who still accuses him of sexually molesting her for many years while still a child); Victor Hugo Tinoco, former Deputy Minister of External Affairs; writers Daisy Zamora, Gioconda Belli and Claribel Alegria; Carlos and Luis Enrique Mejia Godoy, singers and songwriters whose music carried the revolution all over the world and of course the late Herty Lewites, former Chief of Protocol at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Minister of Tourism and Mayor of Managua. 

This is a relative short but impressive list of valuable members of the FSLN who were forced out by Ortega's power grab as Secretary General of the party. His brother General Humberto Ortega, another of the founders of the FSLN, has distanced himself from Daniel Ortega. 

Why did Ortega support the new anti-abortion bill? 

It's politics at its worse, another of Ortega's pathetic, vicious efforts to win votes by stupidly siding with the conservative, powerful Catholic church and with the most reactionary members of Nicaragua´s society who, by the way, when they want abortion on demand just simple hop a plane and get an abortion in Miami or Canada. For hundreds of poor, single women and for minors as young as 12 years old who, as victims of rape have no legal recourse for theraupeutic abortions, it is a death sentence. Nicaragua is back to the dark ages of the Inquisition. Doctors who practice abortions will be sentenced to as many as 30 years in jail, this in a country were there is a famine of medical doctors. It is just plain criminal.

How does the left in Cuba or Venezuela regard Ortega? Should the socialists feel sorry for this state of affairs? 

Don't feel sorry for anything. Ortega gets limited coverage in Cuba´s media. To be fair, some of my articles critical of Ortega's mishandling of the FSLN affairs have been published in Granma and in La Jiribilla, Cuba's newspapers. I believe that Cuba and Venezuela support the ideals of the FSLN. In this spirit they also tolerate Ortega's shenanigans but he gets scant media coverage in either country. In fact, when President Fidel Castro became ill Ortega went to La Habana to visit the Cuban President. It coincided with the visit to the illustrious patient by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. However Ortega's visit went largely ignored by the Cuban media. I truly believe that Cuba's and Venezuela's solidarity remain solidly behind the revolution while paying lip service to Ortega's erratic leadership for the sake of socialist solidarity. 

Is Ortega in the same leadership category as Castro or Chavez? 

Not by a long shot. One thing remains certain in my mind: Ortega is no Hugo Chavez. Nor is he another Evo Morales or a Lula. He will never be a Fidel Castro, not by any wild stretch of the imagination. Neither Nicaragua nor the Latin American left will accept individuals who sacrifice revolutionary principles for the proverbial 30 silver pieces. Ortega has done that. His days as a popular Sandinista fighter (a misnomer since he never fired a shot or fought in the revolution) are over.

One more observation. You're right about Cuba's support of Ortega. It is definitely there. However, it's my feeling that the support is lukewarm, a matter of solidarity with the socialist camp rather than with the individual. It's a matter of optics and my Cuban friends are masters of it. Otherwise any criticism of Ortega's behaviour would play nicely into the hands of Bush and of the right wing elements in Latin America. They would showcase it as a failure of socialism in the Hemisphere. Just imagine the White House's triumphal glee if it became public that Latin American socialists started washing their dirty laundry in public. We would never hear the end of it. Nevertheless privately Ortega is an embarrassment to socialism and socialists everywhere.

Why?

It's difficult for even the most committed of socialists to support individuals whose blind greed for power transform them into abject capitalists and the betrayal of the basic principles of a beautiful revolution. It is unforgivable. Ortega has done that in buckets. He betrayed the Nicaraguan people and those of us who supported him. Just look at his newest partner in crime Jaime Morales Carazo, Ortega's choice for vice president. Some alliance! Morales Carazo still considers himself a member of Somoza's old Liberal Party. He said it the media in Nicaragua only last week. And, who is Morales Carazo? No less than a wealthy member of Nicaragua's elite, a personal advisor and a godfather of Aleman's wedding and the owner of the mansion where Ortega has lived since the early 1980's. Ortega confiscated Morales Carazo's mansion for himself and it was not until early this year that Morales withdrew his claim to have the home returne. Of course, Ortega assured everyone that he had paid Morales for the property and that everything was just heavenly between the two of them. Then he pick Morales Carazo as his vice presidential candidate. A wise political strategy by Ortega? No way. Without the slightest doubt, Ortega has now embraced the worse traits of Nicaragua's oligarchy. 

Is there any chance that you could be wrong in your assessment of Ortega?

Perhaps but there is enough proof to the contrary. It is practically impossible that so many of the bright, clean, valuable, passionate, still-militant Sandinistas who left the FSLN because of Ortega could be so wrong. There are just too many to dismiss them as mere dissidents. On the other hand, there are too few legitimate brains supporting Ortega. His political support comes from a loyal but power-mad, greedy bunch who are now suddenly just as wealthy and as as ruthless as Ortega himself.

How do you explain this turn of events to Canadians and to people outside Nicaragua who have supported the FSLN for so many years?

It's not an easy task. On Monday, November 6, the day after the elections in Nicaraguan, I'll be on national television in Canada. Old stuff. In the past two months I have been interviewed on Che Guevara´s continous impact on young people, the merchandising of a photograph!!! Recently I also discussed President Hugo Chavez's speech at the UN as well as his trips to the Middle east. Reporters often ask silly questions which they consider earth-shattering questions such as "Why did Chavez travel to Iran?" as if he had to ask permisssion from Washington to go anywhere he pleases. My reply was "Because he can." It'll be much more difficult to explain a victory by Ortega but being a Monday morning quarter back is a lot easier than predicting the weather.  

This time around CBC-TV, Canada's national television network, has asked me to comment on the result of Nicaragua's elections and what the future will bring. Damn it! It's awful that the North American media actually believes that we are so damn predictable. I'll probably come up with something outrageous. Just in case, have you got a crystal ball? Any suggestions?