Everything
else is
informed
speculation.
Still, much
will turn on
how big the
United
States
becomes and
how fast it
grows - from
its use of
natural
resources to
its
settlement
patterns to
shifts in
political
clout.
There will
be 400
million
Americans in
2043,
climbing to
420 million
by
midcentury,
the US
Census
Bureau
estimates.
The added
numbers will
change the
nature of
the
populace,
reflecting
trends
already
begun.
Between the
last
official
census in
2000 and the
one of 2050,
non-Hispanic
whites will
have
dwindled
from 69
percent to a
bare
majority of
50.1
percent. The
share who
are Hispanic
will have
doubled to
24 percent.
Asians also
will have
doubled to 8
percent of
the
population.
African-Americans
will have
edged up to
14 percent.
In other
words, the
US will be
on the verge
of becoming
a "majority
of
minorities."
Wars,
natural
disasters,
shifts in
the economy,
unforeseen
social and
political
developments
- any or all
of these
could affect
the numbers,
perhaps
dramatically.
For one
thing,
America
could, as
many voters
and their
elected
officials
now demand,
clamp down
on
immigration.
The
country's
unusually
high teen
pregnancy
rate could
drop.
Scientific
advances
could extend
longevity.
In any case,
Americans
are expected
to continue
to gravitate
west and
south.
Today, the
Top 10
fastest
growing
states,
cities, and
metropolitan
areas are
all in those
regions,
mostly in
the West. In
general, the
West and
South have
been growing
two to three
times as
fast as the
Northeast
and Midwest.
The great
American
midsection,
meanwhile,
will
continue to
empty out.
When
historian
Frederick
Jackson
Turner
declared the
American
frontier
"closed" in
1893, he was
using the
Census
Bureau
definition
of
"frontier"
as areas
having no
more than
six people
per square
mile. By
that same
density
definition,
the number
of such
counties
actually has
been
increasing:
from 388 in
1980 to 397
in 1990 to
402 in 2000.
Kansas has
more
"frontier"
land now
than it did
in 1890.
If these
regional
shifts
continue as
expected,
the
political
impact will
be felt. For
one thing,
membership
in the US
House of
Representatives,
fixed at 435
seats, would
change,
producing
winners and
losers just
as it has
with recent
censuses. It
may shift
the current
alignment of
"red" states
and "blue"
states - but
other
factors
besides
population
growth in
the South
and West may
influence
that
political
balance.
For example,
wealthy,
relatively
liberal
Californians
and others
with money
to spend
have been
buying up
ranch land
in
politically
conservative
Rocky
Mountain
states such
as Montana,
Idaho, and
Wyoming.
Many of them
are more
inclined to
want to
protect the
environment
from energy
exploration
and other
development.
An
increasing
Hispanic
population -
which could
see 188
percent
growth
between 2000
and 2050,
according to
the Census
Bureau -
could affect
the
political
balance as
well.
At the same
time, the
population
will become
relatively
older. A
person born
in 1967,
when the
population
turned 200
million,
could be
expected to
live 70.5
years. Life
expectancy
for those
born today
is 77.8
years.
More older
Americans
The impact
of the aging
baby-boom
generation,
whose oldest
members turn
60 this
year, will
be felt on
Social
Security and
Medicare.
"We really
are doing
very well in
terms of
extending
life, and
that is
going to
increase the
rate of
population
growth,"
says Samuel
Preston, a
University
of
Pennsylvania
demographer.
It could
also have
political
impact.
As the US
moves toward
400 million
people,
Americans
can be
expected to
marry later
in life, and
more of them
will live
alone.
Between 1970
and 2005,
the median
age of first
marriage
moved from
23 to 27 for
men and from
21 to 26 for
women. Over
the same
period, the
percentage
of
single-person
households
grew from 17
percent to
26 percent.
Those trends
are likely
to continue.
Experts
generally
believe that
expansion to
meet the
housing and
other
community
needs of a
growing
population
is likely to
remain
concentrated
in suburbs
and exurbs.
"Most
projections
show that
the
continued
increase in
the US
population
and the
projected 50
percent
increase in
space
devoted to
the built
environment
by 2030 will
largely take
place in the
sprawling
cities of
the South
and West,
areas
dominated by
low-density,
automobile-dependent
development
of
residential,
commercial,
and
industrial
space,"
writes
demographic
trend-watcher
Joel Kotkin
in a recent
issue of the
magazine The
Next
American
City.
Concerns
about use of
resources
This kind of
continuing
development
tied to US
population
growth
worries many
environmentalists,
as well as
those
concerned
about the
loss of
farmland.
Annual US
population
growth of
nearly 3
million
contributes
to the water
shortages
that are a
serious
concern in
the West and
many areas
in the East,
says Lester
Brown,
president of
the Earth
Policy
Institute.
Water tables
are now
falling
throughout
most of the
Great Plains
and in the
Southwest,
he warns.
Some lakes
are
disappearing
and rivers
are running
dry.
"As water
supplies
tighten, the
competition
between
farmers and
cities
intensifies,"
says Mr.
Brown.
"Scarcely a
day goes by
in the
western
United
States
without
another
farmer or an
entire
irrigation
district
selling
their water
rights to
cities like
Denver, Las
Vegas,
Phoenix, Los
Angeles, or
San Diego."
Concern
about a
growing
populace and
decreasing
resources is
likely to
push
governments
toward
conservation
and more
sustainable
development,
experts say.
This may be
especially
true of
energy.
Nineteen
states and
the District
of Columbia
now have
renewable
portfolio
standards
that require
electric
utilities to
use more
wind, solar,
biomass,
geothermal,
and other
renewable
sources.
"The global
context will
really drive
what happens
in the
United
States,"
says
futurist
Hazel
Henderson.
Last month,
for example,
the Chinese
government
released its
first
"green"
gross
domestic
product
(GDP)
report. It
measures
economic
growth while
also
factoring in
the
environmental
consequences
of that
growth.
Other
governments
and
financial
intuitions
now are
being pushed
in the same
direction.
US portfolio
managers in
charge of
$30 trillion
in assets
now demand
carbon
disclosures
of all the
companies in
their
portfolios,
says Ms.
Henderson.
"The tipping
point has
been reached
there," says
Henderson.
"I feel very
hopeful that
the
evolution to
the solar
age could
happen much
quicker than
we might
have
expected
because it's
being driven
by so many
stress
points, from
global
warming to
water
shortages to
desertification."
By
mid-century,
she
predicts:
"Cars will
be getting
100 m.p.g.
if they're
still using
gasoline
instead of
fuel cells.
That's
definitely a
no-brainer.
Cities and
towns will
get more and
more compact
as these
sprawling
suburbs end
up being too
costly and
inefficient."
That vision
for the
future
contrasts
sharply with
Mr. Kotkin's.
But given
current
political,
economic,
environmental,
and social
trends -
especially
the unknowns
about world
energy
supplies -
it is likely
to be just
as valid.
Meanwhile,
the US
population
clock keeps
ticking:
Every 13
seconds
somebody
dies. Every
31 seconds
there's
another
immigrant -
legal or
illegal. It
adds up to a
net gain of
one person
every 11
seconds, or
about 8,000
every day.
It took 39
years to add
the most
recent 100
million; the
next 100
million will
take a
couple of
years less
than that.
The US
population
growth rate
is expected
to decline a
bit by
mid-century.
Still, by
then the
numbers will
have
increased to
some 420
million,
according to
official
calculations.
Critics of
US
immigration
policy say
the number
could be
significantly
higher.
"If Congress
should end
up ducking
the issue of
immigration
reform and
maintaining
the status
quo of mass
legal and
illegal
immigration,
our
population
is projected
to still
continue its
rapid
growth,"
warns the
Federation
for American
Immigration
Reform in a
recent
report. "Our
projection
is for a
population
of between
445 and 462
million
residents
depending on
the
assumptions
used."
Diversity is
changing
attitudes
But societal
changes tied
to
population
are more
than
numbers.
As the
racial and
ethnic mix
among
Americans
shifts in
the decades
ahead,
public
attitudes
are likely
to change as
well. In
some ways,
they already
are.
For example,
between 1986
and 2003,
the share of
adults who
approved of
interracial
marriage
rose from 70
percent to
83 percent,
according to
a Roper
Reports
study. This
trend is
especially
true among
young
Americans. A
2002 Gallup
survey
showed that
just 30
percent of
adults 65
and older
approved of
marriage
between
blacks and
whites. But
among people
between 18
and 29, 86
percent said
they had no
problem with
interracial
marriage.
"The fact
that today
we see young
people
intermarrying
more,
interracial
dating much
more common
- all of
that I think
portends
that we're
going to
become much
more
ecumenical
in the way
we look at
things than
we were in
the past,"
says William
Frey, a
demographer
at the
University
of Michigan
and the
Brookings
Institution.
"I think
we'll have
much more
tolerance
for people
of other
backgrounds,
cultures and
languages,
points of
view, and
religious
and belief
systems."
What's
certain is
that there
will be a
lot more
Americans.
• Last of
five parts.
Previous
installments
in this
series
appeared
Sept. 12,
19, and
26, and
Oct. 3.
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