The Wall Street Journal

Bush Seeks Balance on Cuban Migration

New Policy Aims to Open Door to More Emigrés,
While Discouraging Post-Castro Exodus
By JOHN D. MCKINNON and EVAN PÉREZ
August 14, 2006; Page A4

 

The Bush administration handed an election-year reward to Florida's influential Cuban community, announcing new immigration rules that would make it much easier for relatives left behind to join them in the U.S.

But the new policy, released late Friday, is also carefully sculpted to keep Cuban migration from becoming a political headache for President Bush and his brother, Jeb Bush, the Republican governor of Florida. Federal and state officials worry about a new wave of Cuban refugees amid uncertainty over the future of the island's ailing ruler, Fidel Castro.

With immigration already a flashpoint in the U.S., many Republicans "are terrified" at the prospect of an influx of Cuban immigrants, says David E. Johnson, a Republican pollster and consultant who works with candidates in Florida. "The White House wouldn't admit this publicly, but all of them are praying right now for Castro's recovery." A tumultuous transition in Havana "is completely problematic for them -- especially if it happens before November."

Both Cuban voters and Cuban migration have long been forces in Florida politics. Over the years, the state's million Cuban-Americans have won special immigration privileges, and while they tend to vote strongly Republican, they don't do so uniformly, and have shown some willingness to back Democrats favorable to their agenda. But the state's periodic refugee crises can cause headaches for whoever is in power.

The massive Mariel boatlift is believed to have contributed to Jimmy Carter's defeat in Florida in 1980. The rafter exodus of 1994 threatened then-Gov. Lawton Chiles's re-election hopes so much that he pressured Washington into sending boaters back unless they made it to U.S. soil. The Clinton administration's decision to return one young refugee, Elian Gonzalez, in 2000 cost Al Gore crucial votes among the Cuban-American bloc.

The conflicting forces are evident in campaigning for Florida's Sept. 5 primary, and the state's general election. In the race to succeed the term-limited Gov. Bush, Republican attorney general Charlie Crist is favored by his party's establishment and many Cuban-American leaders. Mr. Crist's main rival, state chief financial officer Tom Gallagher, is trying to woo Cuban-American votes by promoting a wider door for Cuban immigrants. On the other hand, three of the five Republicans vying for the nomination in an open, southwest district are running on anti-immigration platforms.

Cuban issues are particularly prominent in this year's campaign because of questions about Mr. Castro's future. On his 80th birthday yesterday, he issued a statement suggesting that his condition after abdominal surgery remains uncertain.

"I ask you all to be optimistic, and at the same time to be ready to face any adverse news," he said. Meanwhile, Mr. Castro's younger brother, Raúl, made his first public appearance as interim president, greeting Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, in Cuba to mark the occasion.

Cuba's changing climate presents American politicians with a range of new pressures and possibilities. As the transition from Mr. Castro begins, Cuban-American leaders will be looking to the U.S. to lead an international effort to force democratization on the island. They also will be pushing for greater financial support for prodemocracy elements. As the transition progresses, there are likely to be more calls for liberalization of the travel and trade restrictions that the U.S. imposes. The Cuban-American community itself is likely to be split, though, on whether the transition merits a harder or softer line against Havana.

U.S. officials say any post-Castro government will be inherently unstable. That could lead to chaos on the island and raise demands for humanitarian relief. Deterioration of Cuba's political or economic situation could become a powerful weapon for 2008 presidential candidates who want to appeal to Florida's Cuban-American vote. Jeb Bush is seen as having presidential aspirations at some point, and his response in coming weeks could have an effect on his enduring appeal in the state.

Mauricio Claver-Carone, executive director of the U.S.-Cuba Democracy PAC, an advocacy group, believes the transition to democracy in Cuba will ultimately bring a political victory for Republicans and their allies, as the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe did for President Reagan. "I think we're going to be on the right side of history," he said.

The political impact in Florida from political transition in Havana could be greatest if -- as some fear -- the changes encourage an exodus from the island. Already, pressure to flee Cuba looks to be building, based on the growing numbers of refugees the U.S. Coast Guard has intercepted at sea in recent months.

Some Republican analysts in the U.S. worry that chaos in Cuba could upset the balance that President Bush has tried to strike between a more welcoming immigration policy and more orderly borders. Hard-line conservatives also could face trouble explaining why they oppose illegal immigration from Mexico and Central America, but favor friendly rules for Cubans. Cuban refugees generally are allowed to stay in the U.S. as long as they can reach American soil. Refugees from other countries, such as Haiti, typically are returned to their homeland.

[Flight to Freedom]

Cuban-American leaders say any exodus depends on whether the post-Castro Cuban regime wants to antagonize the U.S. by allowing another mass migration. State and federal officials are reviewing their emergency plans for responding to a change in power in Cuba. One aim of the planning is to discourage attempts at mass migration, Gov. Bush told reporters this month.

"You don't want to have mass migration," Gov. Bush said. "The best solution for mass migration is to have a free Cuba, to have people have hope there."

The Bush administration's new immigration rules announced Friday were designed in part to balance the conflicting concerns. The main change would allow thousands of Cubans with close relatives in the U.S. to come to America almost immediately and gain permanent resident status, rather than wait as long as 12 years for family reunification. Other changes would loosen immigration rules for doctors. Assuming the Cuban government agrees, the change could accelerate departures for at least 10,000 would-be emigrés, and possibly many more.

Yet the Department of Homeland Security, in its announcement, also discouraged Cubans from attempting the 90-mile crossing to the U.S. on their own, warning that they face losing their right to a family-reunification visa if they try.

Cuban-American leaders generally praised the new policies. "I commend the administration in seeking ways to protect Cuban lives and at the same time attempting to take away the Castro regime's abuse of the emigration of Cubans," said Mr. Claver-Carone.

But others warned that if chaos or a political crackdown emerges in Cuba, there is little the U.S. can do to stop an exodus. "This will not discourage anything," said Ninoska Perez-Castellon, director of the Cuban Liberty Council in Miami. "As far as an exodus, it all depends on what happens in Cuba."