August 8, 2006

U.S. Weighs
Immigration-Policy Changes
For Cuba

WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration, concerned that boatloads of refugees may attempt to reach Florida as the Castro regime totters, is considering changes to immigration policy that would ease legal entry to the U.S. for many Cubans.

But some government officials worry that the policy shift itself could unleash an unmanageable flood of immigrants, and there were signs yesterday of last-minute second-guessing within the administration. A spokeswoman for the Department of Homeland Security, Joanna Gonzalez, said there were "ongoing deliberations," but "at this time there is no change in policy."

The review predates Cuban leader Fidel Castro's recent hospitalization. But it comes as the Bush administration confronts the prospect that Mr. Castro's exit from power -- and possible replacement by his brother Raúl -- will produce waves of immigration and dislocation.

A senior U.S. diplomat said fear of the political ramifications of a massive influx before the November elections -- potentially troublesome to President Bush, as well as his brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush -- was a factor in the deliberations. They are saying Raúl will become a swim coach: Castro will gasp his last breath and he'll blow a whistle and then everyone will be in the water swimming for the U.S.," he said.

The most notable move under consideration could speed up the arrival of thousands of Cubans who have immediate relatives living in the U.S. Under current policy, they must wait as long as 12 years to get visas to be reunited with their families. As contemplated, the U.S. might allow those Cubans to come here nearly immediately, and then qualify for U.S. residency under a special law that grants legal status to Cubans who make it to U.S. soil. That change could discourage smugglers, U.S. officials believe, as well as would-be rafters and boaters.

The U.S. also is considering allowing Cuban doctors working in other countries to enter the U.S. Another possibility is using available information to create a list of Castro-regime collaborators who would become ineligible for entry to the U.S.

Some in the administration worry that the change under consideration for immediate family members would itself inundate Florida with immigrants. But other officials say the prospect of Mr. Castro's demise might induce many to stay in Cuba, in hopes that the situation there will improve.

Any changes are likely to be accompanied by warnings that a mass exodus wouldn't be acceptable to the U.S., according to a person familiar with the discussions. Homeland Security officials are looking at ways to discourage Cuban Americans from heading to Cuba to rescue family or to try to take back property.