Manuel E. Yepe: Latin America and Brazil's Second Round (October 2014)

LATIN AMERICA AND BRAZIL'S SECOND ROUND
By Manuel E. Yepe

A CubaNews translation.
Edited by Walter Lippmann.

In the first round of presidential elections in Brazil, the triumph of President Dilma Rousseff, candidate for re-election representing a coalition led by the Workers Party (PT), was wide but not enough to avoid a deciding round between the two leading candidates.

Almost all polls on voting preference for that first round gave her the victory. At the beginning, a highly-contested race against Marina Silva was predicted; but from the
moment when Dilma's campaign radicalized its leftist orientation, the position of the
candidate of the Socialist Party weakened and ultimately Dilma's victory resulted in her nearest opponent being the candidate of the PSDB, Aecio Neves, who had been ranked third in the polls.

When asked about their preferences in case of a possible second round, respondents showed a clear preference for Dilma Rousseff over Marina Silva, with an even wider margin over Aecio Neves, if he were to be the opponent.

For this decisive round, scheduled for October 26, the choice is quite simple. There will be only one candidate for the Left and one for the Right. One represents the aspirations of the huge popular masses and the other answers to the conservative interests of the capitalist system.

The conservatives have their hopes on the fact that, although the voting for Dilma was higher than that for Neves, who came second, and that for Marina Silva who finished third, the sum of the votes in the first round for these two exceeded the number of votes Dilma had by more than 13 million .

Obviously, no one thinks that all the votes these two opposition candidates got will automatically unite against Dilma. Logic would suggest that members and supporters of the PSDB would support the candidate of their party, but this would not be the case of
militants, sympathizers and allies of the SP [Socialist Party] who voted for Marina Silva in the first round. These will assume their own political orientation, although probably influenced by calls made, individually or in groups, by some of the leaders of that party.

The electoral chances of Aecio Neves, the candidate of the right, depend on how much he can sweeten his platform programs to capture the votes of naive citizens; because Neves is the candidate of the private domestic and foreign banks, the media companies, an anti-PT segment of national businesses, the upper middle classes and some of the middle classes that see themselves reflected in the consumption patterns and politics of the richest.

But his promotional offers have to tread carefully not to threaten the unjust capitalist relations of exploitation that have managed to survive the period of leftist governments whose continuity is embodied by Dilma Rousseff.

Neves represents traditional Brazilian politics, closely linked to neo-liberalism, the dominance of finance capital; and is oriented toward the development of closer alliances and relationships with the United States and the industrialized nations at the expense of ties with Latin America and the Third World. Neves favors free trade policies, especially free trade agreements with wealthier nations.

He was governor of Minas Gerais for two terms and his poor management in that state is considered to be the reason why –in a state considered the political stronghold of his family– candidate Dilma Rousseff beat the PSDB candidate by far in the recent first round of the elections, and the PT gubernatorial candidate defeated the PSDB candidate by a wide margin.

The electoral battle is expected to be very rough, since what is at stake is the continuation of a national project which Lula da Silva began and Dilma Rousseff promises to deepen and improve. The alternative embodied in Aecio means a return to a formula tried and tested during the two presidential terms of Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002), whose results disappointed most Brazilians.

The overall management promised by Dilma has the solid backing of a record which led Brazil to become transformed –from being a minor dark ally of the United States without significant international weight– to the prestigious seventh world economy it is today, with leadership not only regional but global as a member of the BRICS group of developing countries brought together to counter the uni-polar imperialist hegemony.

In the field of continental politics, the Lula-Dilma duo represents the defense of sovereignty and independence, support for the unity and integration of Latin America and the Caribbean, solidarity with Venezuela, Cuba and other anti-neoliberal processes in the region, and in favor of world peace.

October 18, 2014.

		LATIN AMERICA AND BRAZIL'S SECOND ROUND By Manuel E. Yepe A CubaNews translation. Edited by Walter Lippmann. In the first round of presidential elections in Brazil, the triumph of President Dilma Rousseff, candidate for re-election representing a coalition led by the Workers Party (PT), was wide but not enough to avoid a deciding round between the two leading candidates. Almost all polls on voting preference for that first round gave her the victory. At the beginning, a highly-contested race against Marina Silva was predicted; but from the moment when Dilma's campaign radicalized its leftist orientation, the position of the candidate of the Socialist Party weakened and ultimately Dilma's victory resulted in her nearest opponent being the candidate of the PSDB, Aecio Neves, who had been ranked third in the polls. When asked about their preferences in case of a possible second round, respondents showed a clear preference for Dilma Rousseff over Marina Silva, with an even wider margin over Aecio Neves, if he were to be the opponent. For this decisive round, scheduled for October 26, the choice is quite simple. There will be only one candidate for the Left and one for the Right. One represents the aspirations of the huge popular masses and the other answers to the conservative interests of the capitalist system. The conservatives have their hopes on the fact that, although the voting for Dilma was higher than that for Neves, who came second, and that for Marina Silva who finished third, the sum of the votes in the first round for these two exceeded the number of votes Dilma had by more than 13 million . Obviously, no one thinks that all the votes these two opposition candidates got will automatically unite against Dilma. Logic would suggest that members and supporters of the PSDB would support the candidate of their party, but this would not be the case of militants, sympathizers and allies of the SP [Socialist Party] who voted for Marina Silva in the first round. These will assume their own political orientation, although probably influenced by calls made, individually or in groups, by some of the leaders of that party. The electoral chances of Aecio Neves, the candidate of the right, depend on how much he can sweeten his platform programs to capture the votes of naive citizens; because Neves is the candidate of the private domestic and foreign banks, the media companies, an anti-PT segment of national businesses, the upper middle classes and some of the middle classes that see themselves reflected in the consumption patterns and politics of the richest. But his promotional offers have to tread carefully not to threaten the unjust capitalist relations of exploitation that have managed to survive the period of leftist governments whose continuity is embodied by Dilma Rousseff. Neves represents traditional Brazilian politics, closely linked to neo-liberalism, the dominance of finance capital; and is oriented toward the development of closer alliances and relationships with the United States and the industrialized nations at the expense of ties with Latin America and the Third World. Neves favors free trade policies, especially free trade agreements with wealthier nations. He was governor of Minas Gerais for two terms and his poor management in that state is considered to be the reason why –in a state considered the political stronghold of his family– candidate Dilma Rousseff beat the PSDB candidate by far in the recent first round of the elections, and the PT gubernatorial candidate defeated the PSDB candidate by a wide margin. The electoral battle is expected to be very rough, since what is at stake is the continuation of a national project which Lula da Silva began and Dilma Rousseff promises to deepen and improve. The alternative embodied in Aecio means a return to a formula tried and tested during the two presidential terms of Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002), whose results disappointed most Brazilians. The overall management promised by Dilma has the solid backing of a record which led Brazil to become transformed –from being a minor dark ally of the United States without significant international weight– to the prestigious seventh world economy it is today, with leadership not only regional but global as a member of the BRICS group of developing countries brought together to counter the uni-polar imperialist hegemony. In the field of continental politics, the Lula-Dilma duo represents the defense of sovereignty and independence, support for the unity and integration of Latin America and the Caribbean, solidarity with Venezuela, Cuba and other anti-neoliberal processes in the region, and in favor of world peace. October 18, 2014.
		AMERICA LATINA Y LA SEGUNDA VUELTA EN BRASIL Por Manuel E. Yepe El triunfo de la Presidenta de Brasil, Dilma Rousseff, candidata a la reelección por una coalición encabezada por el Partido de los Trabajadores en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales en Brasil fue holgado, pero insuficiente para evitar una ronda decisiva entre los dos candidatos más votados. Casi todas las encuestas acerca de la intención de votos para esa primera vuelta le daban el triunfo. Inicialmente se pronosticó una carrera sumamente disputada con Marina Silva, pero, a partir de que la campaña de Dilma radicalizó su orientación de izquierda se debilitó la posición de la candidata del Partido Socialista y al final, la victoria de Dilma tuvo como su más cercano opositor al candidato del PSDB Aecio Neves, a quien se le presagiaba el tercer lugar. Preguntados por sus preferencias en caso de una eventual segunda vuelta, los encuestados evidenciaron un claro favoritismo por Dilma Rousseff sobre Marina Silva y, con margen más amplio aún, sobre Aecio Neves, si el oponente fuera éste. Para esta vuelta decisiva programada para el 26 de octubre, la opción es bien simple. Sólo habrá un candidato de la izquierda y otro de la derecha. Uno representa las aspiraciones de las grandes masas populares y otro que responde a los intereses conservadores del sistema capitalista. Los conservadores apoyan sus esperanzas en el hecho de que aunque la votación por Dilma fue superior a la de Neves, que fue segundo, y a la de Marina Silva, que quedó tercera, la suma de los votos a favor de ambos en la primera vuelta superó en más de 13 millones el número de sufragios que tuvo Dilma. Obviamente, nadie piensa que todos los votos que lograron estos dos candidatos opositores se habrán de unir mecánicamente contra Dilma. Sería lógico que los militantes y simpatizantes del PSDB respaldaran al candidato de su partido, pero no lo sería en el caso de los militantes, simpatizantes y aliados del PS en la primera vuelta, quienes asumirán una orientación política propia, aunque influidos probablemente por llamados que, a título individual o grupal, hagan algunos de los líderes de su partido. Las posibilidades electorales de Aecio Neves, el candidato de la derecha, dependen de cuánto pueda edulcorar sus programas a fin de captar el sufragio de la ciudadanía incauta, porque Neves es el candidato de los bancos privados nacionales y extranjeros, las empresas periodísticas, un segmento anti PT del empresariado nacional, las clases medias altas y parte de los sectores medios que se ven reflejados en los modelos de consumo y la política de los más ricos. Pero sus ofertas promocionales tienen que cuidarse de no amenazar la vigencia de las injustas relaciones capitalistas de explotación que han logrado sobrevivir el período de los gobiernos de izquierda cuya continuidad Dilma Rousseff encarna. Neves representa la política brasileña tradicional, vinculada estrechamente con el neoliberalismo, el predominio del capital financiero, y la orientación al desarrollo de alianzas y relaciones más estrechos con Estados Unidos y las naciones industrializadas en detrimento de los nexos con Latinoamérica y el Tercer Mundo. Neves es partidario de las políticas de libre comercio, en especial de tratados de librecambio con las naciones más ricas. Fue gobernador del estado de Minas Gerais durante dos periodos y se atribuye a su mala gestión el hecho de que, en ese estado que se consideraba feudo político de su familia, la candidata Dilma Rousseff venciera por amplio margen al del PSDB en la reciente primera vuelta de las elecciones y que el candidato a gobernador del PT derrotara por amplio margen al del PSDB. Se espera que la batalla electoral sea muy dura, dado que lo que está en juego es la continuidad de un proyecto de país que inició Lula da Silva y Dilma Rousseff promete profundizar y mejorar. La alternativa que encarna Aecio significa el retorno a una fórmula ya probada durante los dos mandatos presidenciales de Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002), cuyos resultados defraudaron a la mayoría de los brasileños. La gestión global que promete Dilma tiene el sólido respaldo de una ejecutoria que llevó a Brasil a convertirse, de oscuro aliado menor de Estados Unidos, sin peso internacional significativo, en la prestigiosa séptima economía mundial que es hoy, con liderazgo no solo regional, sino global como miembro del grupo BRICS de países en vías de desarrollo llamado a contrarrestar la hegemonía unipolar imperialista. En el terreno de la política continental, la dupla Lula-Dilma representa la defensa de la soberanía e independencia, el apoyo a la unidad e integración de América Latina y el Caribe, la solidaridad con Venezuela, Cuba y los demás procesos anti neoliberales de la región, y a favor de la paz mundial. Octubre 18 de 2014.