Havana, Friday 15 February 2013. Year 17 / Number 46

[image: Photo: AP]

Obama, Promises and Posibilitéis.

DALIA GONZÁLEZ DELGADO

Without having fulfilled many promises made during his first election campaign Obama has commenced a second Presidential term. What can we expect from the next four years? Will there be continuity or change in the U.S.?

Optimistic and sceptical analysts and ordinary North Americans with views on these issues offer some of their opinions to Granma.

Jorge Hernandez considers that the “restrained nature of Obamas inauguration speech was designed to lower expectations.”

Rolf Otto Niederstrasser who studies Political Sciences at the Texas-Pan American University is hopeful that this time Obama will “more aggressively pursue his agenda”.

“I want him to resolve the economic problems and pull our troops out of Afghanistan. I also hope he improves ties with Latin America because until now his policies seem very like those of Bush. I would like him to fulfil his promises on the closure of the prison at Guantanamo and to reduce spending on defence.”

For his part, Cuban political scientist Carlos Alzugaray thinks that “there is less expected at the start of Obamas second term than there was when the mandated Afro-American first arrived at the White House at the head of a movement that had proclaimed change to be its most essential proposition”.

Nonetheless the expert points out that “despite a general perception that Obama has disappointed, his achievements in health and the reduction of troop numbers deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan are not insignificant.”

He can now focus on his historical legacy and, despite the awkwardness of having the House of Representatives under Republican control, be more courageous in his implementation of dormant policies.

MORE OF THE SAME

North-American journalist Walter Lippmann does not expect any change. “I think there will be more austerity measures, more repression and more war. “I don’t foresee anything else.”

Similarly, Gloria la Riva who is affiliated to the Party for Liberty and Socialism in the U.S. assures that “Obamas policies are simply a continuation of those of Bush, Clinton, Bush Senior and Reagan; an increasingly rightist elite.”

La Riva who is also the National Coordinator of the U.S. Committee for the Freedom of the Five affirms that it is only “through struggle that the people’s situation will change, because this government has been responsible for so much misery at home and abroad.”

DOMESTIC PROBLEMS

Liliana Fernandez Mollineado, a professor and Researcher at the Centre for Hemispherical and U.S. Studies (CEHSU) at Havana University is optimistic “without straying far from reality so as not to be drawn into shallow idealisms”.

“If he should be so inclined, Obama may prioritize his domestic agenda even though the internal context is unfavourable, not just because of economic factors, but also the social crisis within the country manifest through recent violent episodes”.

Havana University professor Ernesto Dominguez shares this view and also believes Obama will concentrate on the domestic front. “Amongst the issues that the President will prioritize is migratory reform, capability to sustain employment creation and the implementation of measures designed to ignite the economy. This will also involve addressing current issues such as gun control.

In the CEHSEU Researchers judgement “foreign policy will play a secondary role, albeit a still significant one. He will most likely maintain his tendency to direct his principal political, military and strategic capabilities towards the Asiatic-Pacific region and establish strong ties with other equally important regions such as the Middle-East and Central-Asia. Latin-America may come in for more attention without, though, becoming a priority. So, beyond some insignificant moves Cuba may also be marked for more of the same.

WHAT TO EXPECT?

CEHSEU Director, Jorge Hernández points out that “Obama is confronting a different situation than he did in 2009. At that time the nation was demanding change which was something that resonated from his campaign slogan. Now after frustrations and defeats, campaign slogans about embarkation, holding the line, completion and consolidation of what was proposed or has been left unfinished are brandished”.

“The nation faces a tense economic situation, the gap between rich and poor widens, poverty and unemployment rates continue to increase, fiscal imbalances persist, debt and budget deficits rise, there is dissatisfaction at delays in promised migratory reform legislation and internal violence is unresolved”.

“On the political front society remains polarized between options offered by the conservatives, those professing a burnt out liberalism alongside the manifestations of a social movement with a leftist tint; Occupy Wall Street versus the Tea Party.”

“Foreign policy remains hostage to military conflict and promises of peace, on one hand an eventual reduction in defence spending is talked about while on the other the same positions on supposedly rogue-Americans such as Cuba and Venezuela are maintained. Challenges associated with China’s and Russia’s increased world importance remain”.

“What to expect? Greater internal conflicts, problems re-establishing a national consensus and criticisms arising from unfulfilled promises. Certain readjustments will be made but the restrained nature of Obamas inauguration speech was designed to lower expectations. The crisis and the economic depression cannot be avoided, social contradictions are aggravated and the significance of military scenarios remains unchanged”.

. “Hard conservatism will hold its place at the ideological centre and the U.S. national project will not attain the necessary reconstruction during the next four years.”