Havana. 16 November 2012-11-18 Challenges Obama Faces In His
Second Term (2014-2017) The elections which took place in the U.S. on 6 November were among the most expensive and hotly-contested ever held. Expenditures by the two presidential candidates, the parties and outside groups amounted to 2.6 billion dollars or 6 billion dollars if federal legislative election spending is included in the total. Ultimately, Obama came to the fore with Latinos, Afro-Americans and women opting to give him an opportunity to make good on unfulfilled promises left over from his first term. It is, however, very early in the day to forecast what Obama's domestic and foreign policies might be during this second term. Will he remain true to form by making tactical adjustments similar to those he made during his first term? During his re-election victory speech at the Chicago Convention Center, he gave only minor indications. He promised to try to continue to govern with bi-partisan support, to stimulate the economy and to advance his immigration reforms. He reaffirmed the supposed view that North Americans are a chosen people and went so far as to promise that the best was yet to come. “We have once again found our direction and know from the bottom of our hearts that for the United States the best is yet to come….. we want to pass on a secure nation that is respected and admired worldwide, a nation defended by the most powerful military and the best troops the world has ever known. But, also a nation which confidently goes beyond this age of war and constructs a peace based upon the promise of freedom and dignity for every human being. Together, with your support and by the grace of God, we will continue our journey and remind the world that we inhabit the greatest nation on earth”. What is to come? Multi-million dollar transfers of Pentagon funds to social projects which address profound inequities? An end to armed aggression and a limiting of the control yielded by the military-industrial complex? A reform of Latin American and Caribbean policies as a token of gratitude to his Latino electorate? It is traditional for U.S. presidents to dedicate more time to international politics during their second term in office. In this regard Obama faces global and regional tests and domestic challenge of ensuring that a Democrat succeeds him in the 2016 elections. A reduction in the 8% unemployment rate which has left 23 million out of, or without enough work, some means to overcome the economic crisis, the provision of health and education services, a guarantee of energy independence, a declaration on immigration policy as promised to Latinos who supported him a second time and how to reduce the public debt which now stands at an astronomical 16 trillion dollars with a budget deficit of 1 trillion dollars are his principal domestic issues. He must also seek Congressional consensus to resolve the so-called “fiscal abyss” by means of a mix of tax increases and spending cuts which will withdraw 6 billion dollars from the U.S. economy. A failure to avert this “fiscal abyss” would provoke serious consequences in world and domestic markets and cause the nation to suffer a further recession. Can Obama halt or reduce inequality within the U.S.? According to Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, President Lincoln’s 1863 vision of government “of the people, by the people and for the people” has become a “system of the 1%, by the 1% and for the 1%”, within which the 1% earn 25% of all income and control 40% of the nation’s wealth. This elite 1% enjoys the best housing, education and lifestyle without regard to the fact that their privilege impacts upon the how other 99% live. The increasing influence in internal U.S. politics being acquired by Latinos is of interest. There are 50.5 million people in the country of Latino origin which represents 16% of the population and almost 12% of the electorate. They have become the principal minority nationally and are a majority in 28 cities, having grown almost by half (43%) in the last decade. There can be no doubt that with 75% of their votes in his favour, greater than ex-president Bill Clinton's 72% in the 2006 elections, Obama's promises appealed to them. It will not be possible to defer for much longer payment on the debt of immigration reform owed to this community. Globally, there are different challenges to confront, the most outstanding of which is to terminate the ten-year-long war and to which end Obama has pledged to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014. According to Stiglitz, the direct cost to the public of this decade of war can be calculated to have risen to 2 trillion dollars or 17 thousand dollars per U.S. household. He will also have to contend with the European debt crisis and, in the context of his great Middle-Eastern imperialist strategies, to develop fresh interventionist formulas to deal with the complex situation he has provoked in Syria and Iran’s nuclear program. Obama will also have to skillfully manage relationships with China and Russia. He will prioritize dealings with the new political leadership of the Asiatic giant, not only because it is the world’s second largest economy, but because it is the largest buyer and retainer of U.S. Treasury bonds. At the same time, relationships with Russia revolve around the military deployment of the anti-missile defense system in Europe and implementation of the nuclear arms accords signed by Obama and the then Russian President Medevedev. The principal expectations center on forecasts about the Latin American and Caribbean scene. The proclaimed “equal and intelligent” alliance offered by Obama during his first term remained only rhetoric. He presented no new initiatives geared to his neighbors at the two Americas Summits he attended in Trinidad and Tobago 2009 and Colombia 2012. Indeed, in Cartagena there was no agreement on a final declaration principally because of differences with the U.S. on its opposition to Cuba’s participation in the regional bodies meetings. There are very real changes to the continent's political map in recent years arising from the electoral successes of progressive candidates. On December 2, 2011 Latin American and Caribbean nations formed the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CLACS) the first organization in history to promote real regional integration and the unity of peoples. The flawless re-election of Hugo Chavez by in excess of 8 million votes in the elections of 7 October will also have to be taken into account. Once again the Venezuelan people have opted to stay on the socialist path. Furthermore, one of Obama's main regional challenges will be the policy “change” he promised . He will have to demonstrate positive evidence at the Seventh Americas Summit scheduled for 2015 in Panama, or in on the contrary, continue to reinforce a decadent inter-American system created by the U.S. as a means to control and dominate. Will Obama's regional policy during his second term be “different, effective and credible” as he has stated it will be? Will there be a change to the Cuba policy? Will he be a good neighbor or will carry a big stick? Obama has another chance here to rectify his regional policies and his Cuba policy in particular. It is time to move from word to deed, to leave aside anti-Cuban rhetoric and to desist from inventing absurd new pretexts. There is no reason to maintain during his second term a failed blockade policy which is increasingly rejected by the international community. Nonetheless, President Raul Castro clearly outlined Cuba’s policy which is supported by the vast amount of the population, when he said “if they want to debate, we will debate, on equal terms without the slightest diminution of our sovereignty and as equals. We are, directly and without intermediaries, willing to do so when they decide to. But we are not rushing, nor are we desperate, we have made clear just as Fidel did when he said that the era of the carrot and stick has passed and that we will not enter talks on such a basis”. |
|||||||
|