Indira Rampersad: Courting the Latino Vote (Trinidad Sunday Guardian 2008)

Trinidad Sunday Guardian

COURTING THE LATINO VOTE:
PUERTO RICO AND THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES

As Puerto Rican Democrats flock to the polls today to elect a U.S. presidential nominee, a review of the Latino vote in the United States is both timely and necessary.

The U.S. Democratic primaries are very much alive and kicking in the tiny Caribbean island of San Andres, Columbia, where I am currently attending the 33rd Annual Conference of the Caribbean Studies Association (CSA). The elections have surfaced as a salient theme in several panel discussions including my own presentation on U.S. foreign policy to Cuba.

San Andres island is itself a phenomenon, specifically chosen as a venue for the conference because of its sizeable West Indian population. Today, there are about 50 percent “raizals” of Jamaican descendants living in the island who are considered the authentic original inhabitants. The other 50 percent are Colombians who populated San Andres after it was ceded to Colombia by the British in 1822.

In Panama (enroute to San Andres), the inhabitants seem sharply divided along racial lines in their preference of a Democratic candidate. Interestingly, although many of the West Indian Panamanians are backing the white Juan Carlos Navarro for the upcoming Panamanian elections, almost all support Obama in the U.S. primaries.

The same pattern is noted in San Andres with the West Indian descendants strongly supporting Obama and the Hispanic Colombians in favor of Hillary. Hardly any from either country seem inclined toward the GOP’s McCain.

Latinos Favor Hillary

Latinos in the United States have historically identified more with the Democratic than the Republican party. Recent statistics reveal a 54 percent support for the Democrats who constitute 57 percent of the electorate compared to 23 percent who are Republicans. This has increased from the 2004 elections where a slight turn toward the Republicans was witnessed.

But the Republicans’ right wing push for a tough position on illegal immigration has turned off many Latinos. Only 29 percent believe that the Republicans are better equipped to handle immigration. Twice as many favor the Democrats and only 30 percent agree that the Republicans represent the values they hold dearest.

In the 1990s, the GOP was viewed as the mean party that hated all immigrants. Today, the Republicans struggle to find a middle ground among the anti-immigration conservatives and the growing Hispanic voter base.

In the Democratic primaries, the Latinos overwhelmingly support Hillary. This is significant if only because Hispanics constitute 10 percent or thirty million of the 130 million voters in 2008. There are some 1,000 delegates in California, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona and in each of these states, the Latino population is in double digits.

Tensions Between African-Americans and Latinos

Panelists at the CSA conference contend that the Latino tendency toward Hillary is a result of their traditional ties with the Democratic party and Bill Clinton’s presidency. But there may be other dynamics at play.

Obama’s more overt liberal ideology flies againt the Latino conservative stance on gay rights and abortion.

Moreover, the race factor cannot be ignored. The tensions between African-Americans and Latinos and the negative perceptions which these generate have marred relations between these groups for a long time and still resonate throughout the United States. There is a strong reluctance among many Latinos to vote for an African-American candidate. This is devastating for Obama and great for Hillary particulary because the Latino vote is growing and could be a much more significant force should they turn out in droves in the November elections.

The Cuban American electorate is also critical particularly in the marginal constituency of Florida. Traditionally, they have supported the Republican party. Recently, Obama headed down to South Florida to explain his position on the embargo. Though he was singing a different tune last year about dialogue with Fide Castro, none of the three candidates are in favor of removing the embargo. However, Obama is the only candidate inclined toward removing restrictions on remittances and family travel to Cuba.

In Puerto Rico, there are 55 pledged delegates which will be alloted on a proportional basis and 8 unpledged superdelegates. Puerto Rico will select one unpledged add-on delegate at the Assembly of the Democratic Party of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico on June 21 in San Juan. As of April 30, four superdelegates had announced support for Hillary and two for Obama.

Given the traditional pattern of Latino votes, it is expected that Hillary will capture the majority of Puerto Rican support today. Obama therefore faces a formidable challenge in courting the sizeable U.S. Latino electorate, should he emerge the Democratic nominee.

Dr. Indira Rampersad - Email: indi2304@yahoo.com
Lecturer in Political Science/International Relations
Department of Behavioural Sciences
University of the West Indies
St. Augustine
Trinidad, W.I.

Dr. Indira Rampersad holds a Ph.D in Political Science/ International Relations from the University of Florida. Her research focus is U.S. foreign policy to Cuba. She has published on “Human Rights Groups and U.S. Cuba Policy” in the Peace Review. She is currently a Lecturer in Political Science/International Relations at the University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad, and writes a regular political column for the Trinidad Sunday Guardian and the New York based Guyana Journal.