Trinidad Sunday Guardian

McCAIN OR McBUSH? THE AGE-OLD QUESTION

Dr. Indira Rampersad  
indi2304@yahoo.com

Narrowly escaping the wrath of tropical storm Fay which slammed Cuba on Sunday, I arrived in Florida relieved, only to discover that Fay had whipped across the Florida Keys following me to the United States with lightening speed, flooding roads, cutting power and bringing tornadoes that injured at least three people as she mercilessly lashed across the Sunshine state.

Stormy Political Contest

But even with heavy rains and wind speeds of 65 miles per hour, Fay’s fury pales in comparison to the stormy political contest now raging across the U.S. as the race for the White House unleashes a turbulent spate of heated national debates at whirlwind pace, especially with the Democratic Convention showdown set for the next four days in Denver, Colorado.

Interestingly, even with the torrential downpour of Obama-mania in the Anglo-Caribbean and the flood of support amongst Cuban nationals, neither Cuban nor American political pundits are overly optimistic about an Obama victory in November.

Indeed, recent polls in the U.S. reveal Obama losing a nine percent advantage as John McCain intensifies his attacks, narrowing the gap to almost dead-even support for Obama and McCain at 45 and 44 percent, respectively.

McCain’s Dirty Tricks Campaign

McCain’s dirty tricks campaign takes many forms including the advertisement featuring Fidel Castro and Obama discussed in the Sunday Guardian of August 10th. But there is more.

Recently, McCain ran a television ad falsely accusing Obama of opting not to visit wounded U.S. troops because he could not take television cameras.

Next, McCain issued a commercial that interpose images of Obama with pop culture figures Britney Spears and Paris Hilton, trying to present Obama as a shallow celebrity without the experience to lead the country.

Then came accusations that Obama had resorted to racial politics. McCain claims that Obama had accused Republicans of trying to frighten Americans by asserting that Obama did not look like past White U.S. presidents whose images are on the country’s paper money.

The Age-Old Question

The most ironic, however, is the issue of Obama’s age. While one would expect the geriatric McCain to lose support because of his 71 years, a recent article in the Washington Post offers “A Glimpse of Obama’s Age Problem”. The article insists that “If the senator from Illinois is going to achieve his goal of bridging the nation’s divides, he is going to have to overcome a generation gap with older voters unlike any such split a Democratic presidential nominee has faced in years. Even as younger voters are showing signs of breaking with years of lackluster turnout to support him, Obama is facing singular resistance from voters over 65. That age group turns out at the highest rate on Election Day and is disproportionately represented in the swing states of Florida and Pennsylvania.”

Current U.S. polls actually show Obama ahead amongst the under-40 voters and running even among middle-aged voters. McCain consistently leads amongst those 65 and older. This would explain why he remains close overall. His margin is largest among older White voters without a college education which accounts for Obama’s inability to woo the White working class.

As the race quickens toward the finish line, McCain adopts the strategy of preaching to his Republican flock which had supported his party in 2004 and which may be statistically sufficient to bring victory to the GOP.

Meanwhile, Obama continues to spew the message of change, even sometimes leaning to the ideological Center both to woo swing voters and court potential Republican cross-overs.

But Obama’s debating skills still leaves a lot to be desired. In a recent interview with Evangelical Pastor, Rick Warren, Obama displayed a clear lack of confidence and conviction in his stuttering responses to burning issues such as abortion and religion. The conservative McCain was quick on his feet with well-rehearsed answers, emerging from the interview like a Cheshire cat who just swallowed the mouse.

McCain or McBush?

Obama’s greatest advantage, however, is the phenomenon of “McBush”. Even though the uncolourful McCain is viewed as a more moderate Republican, the rather powerful perception that he mirrors the ideology, ideas, policies and vision (or lack of it) of the incumbent George W. Bush, not the least of which is the unpopular Iraq war, is difficult to obliterate. For many Americans, another four years under “McBush” is a terrifying nightmare.

Tropical storm or not, this coming week may end the prolonged suspense of the Vice-Presidential nominees. Thereafter, the presidential race would continue to gather steam as the campaign rolls on like a giant Tsunami wave toward November 4th.

But it is still uncertain whether American politics could undergo volcanic convulsions with its first African-American President.

Dr. Indira Rampersad is a Lecturer in Political Science/International Relations at the Department of Behavioural Sciences, UWI, St. Augustine