Indira Rampersad: Obama's Historic Victory (Trinidad Sunday Guardian 2008)

Trinidad Sunday Guardian

OBAMA’S HISTORIC VICTORY:
MONEY, MESSAGE AND STRATEGY

Barack Obama created history last Tuesday evening emerging as the first African- American presidential candidate to lead a major political party in the United States. The victory came in the wake of the South Dakota and Montana primaries when Obama clinched the Democratic nomination with 2,144 delegates surpassing the required 2,118.

Hillary captured 55 percent (54,179) votes in South Dakota to Obama’s 45 percent (43,726). She had also won Puerto Rico last Sunday with 68 percent (263,120) of the votes to Obama’s 32 percent (121,458). But Obama ran home with Montana gaining 56 percent (102,373) of the votes to Hillary’s 41 percent (74,792).

To what then, can we attribute Obama’s unprecedented victory? The answer can be summarized in three words: money, message and strategy.

Prodigious Fundraising Campaign

Firstly, Obama has managed a prodigious fundraising campaign. He emerges as the most successful fundraiser in 2008 leading Hillary in the money race every month. Appealing easily to new donors, he has been raising more than $1 million a day in 2008, thanks to small online donors. Obama’s campaign raised $31.3 million in April alone with 200,000 new donors, of which 94 percent gave less than $200. Overall, his campaign boasts of almost three million individual contributions with an average donation of $91.00. Obama also has some big financial backers such as Oprah Winfrey which would explain the $266 million he has raised to date.

Brilliant Campaign Strategy

Secondly, Obama’s team displayed meticulous organizing skills and orchestrated a brilliant campaign strategy. The money raised partly funded a secret enterprise which operated on the 11th floor of a skyscraper on Chicago’s Michigan Avenue. There, Obama’s bright, youthful supporters designed interactive Websites and older volunteers occupied an entire call center where they focused not on making calls but on receiving them from Democrats who expressed an eagerness to help.

Most significant is the team’s concentration on successfully wooing delegates and superdelegates. They understood well that the Democratic nominee would be selected on this formula and not on the basis of electibility or popular votes. Obama’s strategists deliberately set out to achieve the targeted number of delegates by dividing the USA into 435 congressional districts which was the basis for pledged-delegate allocations. They microscopically assessed each district under varying scenarios, then zeroed in on quirks that Obama could comfortably exploit.

Campaign Obama also recognized the significance of winning small states. Fully aware that Hillary’s traditional strengths lay in winning big states such as New York and California, Obama’s team opted to send volunteers to the small states which indeed mattered in the primaries, if just for picking up delegates. Obama amassed 118 delegates to Hillary’s 57 across Idaho, Nebraska, Vermont, Maine, Mississippi, North Dakota, DC, Hawaii and Alaska.

In places like Idaho, Alabama and Alaska, which had never seen a Democratic presidential primary campaign, Obama made his presence felt. Moreover, in a district known as the Artic Circle comprising Kansas, Idaho, Utah and Alaska, Obama’s strategists worked virtually unchallenged by Hillary. The Internet was widely used to reach voters located in these remote areas.

Message of Change

But it is Obama’s message, superbly delivered in tone and content, invariably conveying care, concern and charisma and his theme of change which won the hearts of his millions of supporters. Obama’s speeches targeted an electorate vehemently opposed to the Iraq war and deeply concerned about the American economy. Moreover, the theme of change was directed against both the Clintonite and Bush establishments, a return to which many Americans dread. The “new politics” rhetoric from a fresh, young candidate replete with a health care and energy plan veering from traditional policies benefiting the “healthy’ and “wealthy”, held tremendous appeal for reformist, issue-oriented Americans.

Moreover, the polarizing character of Hillary herself and her Bill Clinton baggage played right into Obama’s hands. For many, she is representative of the elite status quo with enough personal resources to fund her own campaign.

However, Obama’s historic victory as the democratic nominee should not be interpreted as an automatic Presidential win in November. Hillary won the popular vote with 18 million mostly white, blue-collar, female and elderly voters and a sizeable majority of Latinos in several states. The delegates formula worked well for Obama in the primaries but the November contest is based on number of states won.

For Obama to become the 44th President of the United States, he needs to woo a majority of Hillary’s 18 million supporters. This may only be possible if Hillary runs for Vice President. Hillary has quit the race and may pledge her support for Obama. But it is uncertain what form this would take.

Such support would nonetheless be critical for Obama in the grueling political marathon ahead.

Dr. Indira Rampersad - Email: indi2304@yahoo.com
Lecturer in Political Science/International Relations
Department of Behavioural Sciences
University of the West Indies
St. Augustine
Trinidad, W.I.

Dr. Indira Rampersad holds a Ph.D in Political Science/ International Relations from the University of Florida. Her research focus is U.S. foreign policy to Cuba. She has published on “Human Rights Groups and U.S. Cuba Policy” in the Peace Review. She is currently a Lecturer in Political Science/International Relations at the University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad, and writes a regular political column for the Trinidad Sunday Guardian and the New York based Guyana Journal.