The Wall Street Journal

September 20, 2004

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The Kerry Campaign Seeks
Cuban-American Beachhead

Bush's Travel Restrictions Could Create
An Opening for the Democrat in Florida

By JOSÉ DE CÓRDOBA
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
September 20, 2004; Page A4

MIAMI -- This month, John Kerry's campaign boldly went where few Democrats have dared to tread since 1992: Little Havana, the heart of Cuban Miami.

There, on Sept. 1, Democrats opened a campaign office across the street from the Versailles Restaurant, a neon-lit kitsch palace where Cuban-Americans gather to talk politics and wax nostalgic. By planting their standard, the Democrats are signaling that after 25 years of overwhelmingly backing Republicans, Cuban-Americans are in play this year.

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Since the days of Ronald Reagan, fervently anti-Castro Cuban-Americans have made their community a bastion of Republican support. That affiliation reached a crescendo four years ago, amid fury over the Clinton administration's decision on Elian Gonzalez, a seven-year-old refugee who was rescued from waters near Miami, after surviving a boat journey to the U.S. in which his mother perished. Anger over the government's returning the boy to Cuba helped spark a massive turnout for George W. Bush, who won 82% of the Cuban-American vote.

But that ardor has cooled, and that could spell trouble for Mr. Bush's re-election hopes. Though Bush forces think they enjoy a slight lead in Florida now, thanks to a recovering economy, the race remains tight. Democrats are working to help Mr. Kerry gain a beachhead among Cuban-Americans, who in the 2000 election made up about 7.5% of the Florida vote. Given that 450,000 Cuban Americans voted in 2000, even a shift of 10%, or 45,000 votes, could be pivotal.

As in other parts of the country, the Iraq war and the bumpy economic recovery are issues for Cuban-Americans. But so is a policy announced by Mr. Bush this summer that restricts visits by Cuban-Americans to their families in Cuba. Some formerly rock-ribbed Cuban-Americans have picketed the offices of local Republican legislators, while a number of respected community leaders have also blasted the restrictions.

The restrictions underscore a generational divide among Cuban-Americans that may give Mr. Kerry an opportunity to make inroads. The earliest generations of Cuban-Americans who arrived before 1980, and for whom the emotional scars of exile remain raw, vote overwhelmingly for Republicans. But newer arrivals see things differently.

Among those who arrived before 1980, who comprise two-thirds of the Cuban-American vote, support for Mr. Bush has risen to 92% in July from 89% in June, according to a survey by pollster Sergio Bendixen for the New Democrat Network, an unaffiliated political group that does Democratic outreach with Hispanics. The poll found that just 6% of these Cuban-Americans plan to vote for Mr. Kerry.

But it also showed Mr. Kerry as the favorite among the other third of Cuban-American voters. Among those born in the U.S., Mr. Kerry leads by 58% to Mr. Bush's 35%. Cuban-Americans who arrived here after 1980 favor Mr. Kerry by a margin of 55% to 20%, with 25% undecided.

"The 'new Cubans' as they are called, are moving our way," Mr. Bendixen says.

Republicans say that is wishful thinking. "We got more than 80% of the vote last time," says Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, one of three Miami-area Cuban-American Republican representatives. "And W will do it again this year."

Mr. Kerry opposes the new embargo-tightening measures, which limit Cuban-Americans to one visit to the island every three years, down from once a year. The regulations also don't define relatives such as cousins, uncles and aunts as close family -- meaning that Cuban-Americans can't legally visit those relatives or send money to them.

Many older Cuban-Americans, those from the generation known as the "exilio historico" or the "historic exile," see the measures as needed to further choke the regime of Fidel Castro, who came to power in 1959. These Cuban-Americans tend to have fewer family ties to the island and to define themselves as political exiles.

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But newer arrivals, who came in the 1980 Mariel boatlift, escaped on rafts, or are part of the 20,000 Cubans allowed to legally emigrate to the U.S. each year, have more family ties to Cuba. Almost all are strongly anti-Castro, but many see themselves as economic emigrants rather than political exiles. For them, family and culture remain strong pulls to the island.

On consecutive weekends in August, several hundred demonstrators, some waving anti-Bush banners, picketed the offices of Cuban-American Republican legislators whom they blame for pushing the travel restrictions. "Remember Bush: Cubans vote, Cubans vote," protesters chanted recently as they marched before Mr. Diaz-Balart's Miami office.

Hard-liners in the community shrug off the protests, saying Cuban-Americans need to cut the economic lifeline to Mr. Castro's threadbare regime.

About 133,000 Cuban-Americans visited the island in 2003. Through spending on their relatives in government-run dollar stores, Cuban-Americans pumped as much as $150 million in cash into Havana's coffers, says John Kavulich, president of the Cuba Trade and Economic Council in New York. Studies estimate that Cuban-Americans send $181 million to $400 million to the island every year.

"Castro had one hell of a business empire here," says Ninoska Perez, an influential Miami radio commentator who lobbied hard for the restrictions. Most Cuban-Americans approve of the travel restrictions, and they won't change their voting patterns this year, she says.

But Democrats who believe the Bush administration's travel restrictions have backfired as a vote-getter among Cuban-Americans plan a vigorous drive to gain support. "We are taking all the traditional campaign techniques to a community that has previously been ignored by the Democrats," says Matt Miller, Mr. Kerry's spokesman here.

Fernando Amandi, a registered Republican who as a Kerry finance vice chairman is on the forefront of the candidate's outreach effort, makes a sales pitch over lunch to Jorge Mesa, a 27-year-old real-estate agent. Mr. Amandi, 55, says Mr. Bush should be "fired" for downgrading the value of "brand America" in the world. Mr. Mesa, born in Cuba and the son of a political prisoner, says he "feels Republican," but may not vote for Mr. Bush this year. Many of his friends feel the same way, he says.

Later, Pedro Freyre, a 55-year-old lawyer active in Cuban causes and a self-proclaimed "card-carrying Republican," who voted for Mr. Bush, tells Mr. Amandi he is angry with the president over his handling of Iraq and the recent travel restrictions.

But winning Cuban-American hearts and minds remains an uphill battle. Miami's popular Spanish-language radio stations often broadcast attacks on Mr. Kerry. Commentators on Radio Mambi, perhaps the most influential local Spanish-language radio station, constantly point out that Mr. Castro has often insulted Mr. Bush, while Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez, a close Castro ally, has stated a preference for Mr. Kerry, who has nonetheless criticized Mr. Chávez's leftist government. If Messrs. Chávez and Castro are pulling for Mr. Kerry, clearly Cuban-Americans should vote for Mr. Bush, the Radio Mambi commentators agree.

Write to José de Córdoba at jose.decordoba@wsj.com3

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